One ocean's signal.
Another ocean's season.
How ENSO can shape the environment for Atlantic hurricanes.
El Niño
A shift in ocean and atmospheric conditions.
More wind shear
Often stronger changes in wind with height.
Less favorable
A broad tendency, not a storm prediction.
Wind shear can disrupt a storm.
El Niño often favors increased vertical wind shear over parts of the Atlantic hurricane development region. La Niña can favor reduced shear. Other ingredients, including Atlantic ocean temperatures and moisture, also matter.
Fewer storms does not mean no risk.
ENSO does not determine the track, strength, or landfall of an individual storm. A quieter basin-wide season can still produce a destructive hurricane.
This page describes climate context. It does not provide warnings, evacuation advice, or a current seasonal hurricane forecast.
Current advisories and warnings are published by the National Hurricane Center.