SEASONAL PROBABILITIES
The outlook, in perspective.
Official CPC issue 2026-10. Compare the same season across different issues.
DJF 2026-27 OUTLOOK
100%
El Niño probability · DJF 2026-27
0 percentage points
100% in 2026-09 to 100% in 2026-10. Both estimates refer to DJF 2026-27.
LOOKING AHEAD
How the odds evolve
DJF 2026-27 El Niño: 100% → 100% (0 percentage points). Same season, 2026-09 and 2026-10 issues.
Seasonal probability table
| Season | La Niña | Neutral | El Niño |
|---|---|---|---|
| SON 2026 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| OND 2026 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| NDJ 2026-27 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| DJF 2026-27 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| JFM 2027 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| FMA 2027 | 0% | 2% | 98% |
| MAM 2027 | 0% | 15% | 85% |
| AMJ 2027 | 1% | 54% | 45% |
| MJJ 2027 | 13% | 70% | 17% |
READING THE CHART
Three outcomes. One season.
Each bar represents a three-month season. The three probabilities add up to approximately 100%, allowing for rounding. OND means October–December; DJF means December–February.
COMPARING ISSUES
Keep the target season fixed.
Bars are matched by season and year. A target outside the previous issue's forecast horizon is left blank, never treated as zero probability.
Original probabilities: NOAA / CPC.
Open CPC probabilities Probabilities use CPC's Relative Oceanic Niño Index framework. ENSOLens does not produce its own forecast.