Northern United States
Some El Niño winters have favored warmer conditions across parts of the northern U.S. This is a tendency, not a uniform outcome.
NORTH AMERICA · SEASONAL CONTEXTA winter outlook.
A winter outlook.
Not a weather promise.
Understand what ENSO can tell you, and what it cannot.
No current seasonal forecast is published on this preview.
The regional notes below describe broad historical context. For current probabilities, open the CPC seasonal outlook.
TWO DIFFERENT QUESTIONSHistory is a starting point.
History is a starting point.
The official outlook goes further.
ENSO is one influence on a U.S. winter. The strength, timing, and location of tropical Pacific warmth can differ between events. Other ocean and atmospheric patterns also matter.
A seasonal temperature or precipitation outlook describes probabilities across a large region and a multi-month period. It does not tell you whether a particular weekend will be snowy.
Current CPC seasonal outlookRain is not snow.
Seasonal precipitation probabilities do not directly describe snowfall totals. Temperature, elevation, and individual storms affect what reaches the ground.
A regional lens
Southern United States
A more active southern storm track can favor wetter conditions in parts of the South. Timing and local outcomes vary.
Western mountains
ENSO alone is not a reliable snow forecast for an individual resort. Use local forecasts for travel and mountain conditions.
Read the probabilities for the region and season you need.
NOAA ENSO resources Historical impact guidance: NOAA Climate.gov. Current outlook: NOAA / CPC.